Connect with us

Money

Bitcoin is a Bubble and I will tell you why

Published

on

Humans are considered rational beings. Every once in a while greed and exuberance trumps rationale we end up with a Bubble. Bitcoin is a bubble and it will fall precipitously. Here’s why…

Some Economics

Value of any product is arrived at through a process that matches demand and supply. If there is a lot of demand for a product and few people offering it, the price go up. There is a greater perceived value for it since the supply is limited — Everyone who wants it, cannot have it. The vice versa is also true. But as with most things in life there are certain exceptions to this rule.

High-end luxury products have an aspirational value and hence the higher the price the higher the demand tends to be. These are called Veblen goods. There are also Giffin goods where this effect is seen with inferior goods.

Either way, in all of these cases price is a consequence of consumption.

There is another case where prices can be made to rise artificially, through hoarding and creating artificial scarcity. The hoarder buys large quantity of a good and waits for the price to rise high enough before beginning to sell it slowly to the actual consumer at an elevated price.

Markets play an essential role is matching demand and supply, which results in price discovery. Markets are the price discovery platform that most of us depend on. We have markets for everything, stocks, currency, commodity, bonds, etc. Most of these trades take place through instruments that are representative of the same. Stock is a company is represented by shares — Stock here represents the assets of a company and the ownership is attributed through shares. There are similar trading instruments for everything that is traded.

The place where this trade is managed, which I referred to an a market earlier, is known as an Exchange. An exchange is where trades are executed and the instruments change hands between the buyer and the seller. The job of an exchange is to provide a framework, to regulate and enable the trade to take place.

Blockchain

Let us say you have a Rs. 10/- currency note. You take this note and buy tea from a tea stall. He in turn takes the note and pays for the fuel bill. He in turns takes the note and pays the school fees for his child. The note has been used for several transactions but we do not know where it originated from and how many hands it changed. If this note were an online token we could track it all the way through.

If there are a set number of tokens in circulation and each of the token can be tracked, there is no way that any fake token can be introduced without changing the total number of token in the system. Furthermore if an anomaly is found, it can be quickly tracked back to its origin.

A Blockchain is a chain of records which are called Blocks. Each block represents one transaction and hence the entire history of an single instrument can be tracked from beginning to the end. A blockchain is what makes it possible for us to track every token. Research on blockchain began in 1991 but the distributed blockchain, which is the basis of all modern blockchain was invented in 2008. The distributed blockchain kept the block of records on every computer that is a part of the system. This redundancy is the secret sauce that make blockchain a phenomenal technology.

This makes it near impossible to fake any transaction because that fake transaction. It is not enough to enter a fake transaction in your own block, the same transaction needs to exist in every copy that is part of the system. Each copy is protected by public key encryption on each user’s system (If you wish to know how encryption works). If any anomaly is found, it can be quickly localized and eliminated.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is one of the implementations of blockchain as a currency. Bitcoin tokens can be mined by solving mathematical problems, but the total supply of bitcoin available is limited by the algorithm. The more bitcoins get mined, the harder it becomes to mine further. The mathematical problems are solved using the computer but the problems take longer and longer to solve as times goes on.

Now, once you have these Bitcoins, you need a way to transact, for which bitcoin wallets exist, where these coins get stored. The wallet is your copy of the blockchain.

Some people thought, “Hey! Why not trade bitcoin?” and they created Bitcoin exchanged. Just like a stock exchange, Bitcoin is bought and sold on Bitcoin exchanges. There are several across the world and they execute bitcoin sale and purchase.

Individuals and companies have been mining bitcoins since it was introduced. Today this mining has assumed industrial scale with more and more people getting interested and mining becoming harder and harder. There are entire server farms that are being committed to mining bitcoins and in all likelihood these are being hoarded for a future date when it would likely be sold.

Value of any product finally lies in its consumption

The value of anything is down to consumers finally adopting the product and using it. This is where demand invariably arrives out of. Whether it is businesses or individuals, utilisation is the key. Keeping something does not create value unless it is an antique. Bitcoin is definitely not an antique.

Source: https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

The graph aboves shows the confirmed Bitcoin transactions per day. At its lowermost it is about 130,000 and at its peak its at about 365,000. It averages out at about 275,000 per day.

Let me just add some perspective. Visa processes about 24,000 transactions per second. So in about 12 seconds Visa does the entire days worth of transactions on Bitcoin!

Although this is not a straight comparison since Visa is a method of exchanging money while Bitcoin itself is a store of value. The market capitalisation of Visa as a company stands at USD 230 Billion while that of Bitcoin stands at USD about 70 Billion dollars. A third of the value of Visa??

Comparing it with gold, which is a store of value unlike Visa which is a transaction mechanism akin to Blockchain; Comex which is a commodity exchange based out Chicago (one of many across the world) does about 289,000 gold contracts per day. The number across the world would probably be in the millions, not to mention the transactions that take place through stores, banks and other means.

There are about 16,500,000 Bitcoins available today. Out of this only about 640,000 is exchanged everyday.

Hoarders will dump

I think the value ascribed to bitcoin given its abysmally small circulation is purely due to the hoarding that many are engaging in. Most of the people just buy bitcoin for the purposes of speculation.

People buy bitcoin and then they keep it.Since nobody is selling (Would you, if you know what you have is doubling in value every 6 months?) — Prices rise.People hear prices are rising — They clamor to buyDemand rises — Price risesSome of the early hoarders keep releasing small amounts of it

The above graph illustrates how this works. For price to rise, the demand has to be high; this demand should be powered by consumption and not hoarding.

My take on this is that the price rise of Bitcoin is fake. It is powered by speculators who are willing to pay more and more in the hope that prices would keep rising. The limit on the supply is additionally helpful in driving the prices up and keeping them there.

Looking into the past

There are plenty of cautionary tales of bubbles but for me the one that most closely matches this is — The Tulip Mania.

Tulips by themselves had no great value.

Tulip was a unique flower and was used for royal gifting. The prices of tulips shot up suddenly on speculative purchase of tulip futures. There were, many who made money during the upsurge. After a couple of years of frenzied buying, the demand for buying newer and newer contracts seemed absent. There was no inherent value in it. Panic set in and ultimately it suddenly collapsed in Feb 1637. Within 3 months all of the value was wiped out, because there was none to begin with!

The same is true of Bitcoin today. Its not like Bitcoin is the preferred currency for transaction or that people are switching to transacting through bitcoin at unforeseen pace. A crazy number of speculators are buying into it for the sake of speculation. There is no inherent value and one day in the not so distant future people will realise it.

_________________________________________________

About the Author

This article was written by Vivek Srinivasan.

Entrepreneurship

Will Financial Liberalisation Trigger a Crisis in China?

Published

on

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been liberalizing its financial system for nearly 4 decades. While it now has a comprehensive financial system with a large number of financial institutions and large financial assets, its financial policies are still highly repressive. These repressive financial policies are now a major hindrance to the PRC’s economic growth.

The PRC is at the beginning of a new wave of financial liberalization that is necessary for supporting the country’s strong economic growth. The country’s leaders have already unveiled a comprehensive program of financial reform, which includes 11 specific reform measures in three broad areas: creating a level-playing field (such as allowing private banks and developing inclusive finance), freeing the market mechanism (such as reforming interest rate and exchange rate regimes and achieving capital account convertibility), and improving regulation.

But could financial liberalization lead to a major financial crisis in the PRC? What would be the consequences for financial stability as the PRC moves to further liberalize its financial system? If the PRC repeats the painful experiences of Mexico, Indonesia, and Thailand, then it might not be able to achieve its original goal of overcoming the middle-income trap.

International experiences of financial liberalization, especially those of middle-income economies, should offer important lessons for the PRC. In our new research, based on cross-country data analysis, we find that financial liberalization, in general, reduces, not increases, financial instability. This powerful conclusion is valid whether financial instability is measured by crisis occurrence or by fragility indicators, such as impaired loans and net charge-offs. The only exception is that financial liberalization does not appear to significantly lower the probability of systemic banking crises, although it does lower the risk indicators for banks. These results have higher statistical significance and are greater in magnitude for the middle-income group than for the entire sample.

The insignificant impact on banking crises, however, should be interpreted with caution. One of the possible explanations is that under the repressed financial regime, the government supports banks with an implicit or explicit blanket guarantee. This reduces the probability of an explicit banking crisis, although the banking risks may be even greater because of the moral hazard problem. In fact, government protection of banks could also increase the probability of a sovereign debt crisis or even a currency crisis before financial liberalization.

If financial liberalization significantly reduces the likelihood of financial crises, especially in middle-income economies, then why did some middle-income economies experience financial crises following liberalization? We further investigate whether the pace of liberalization, the supervisory structure, and the institutional environment matter for outcomes of financial liberalization.

We obtain three main findings. First, an excessively rapid pace of financial liberalization may increase financial risks. The net impact on financial instability depends on the relative importance of the “liberalization effect” and the “pace effect.” In essence, what the “pace effect” captures could simply be the prerequisite conditions and reform sequencing that are well discussed in the literature. Second, the quality of institutions, such as investor protection and law and order, also matter. International experiences indicate that investor protection can significantly reduce the probability of financial crises. Third, the central bank’s participation in financial regulation is helpful for reducing financial risks during financial liberalization. This is probably because central banks always play central roles in financial liberalization, especially in the liberalization of interest rates, exchange rates, and the capital account. If a central bank is responsible for financial regulation, its liberalization policies might be more cautious and prudent.

Our research findings offer important policy implications for the PRC. (1) Further financial liberalization is necessary not only for sustaining strong economic growth but also for containing or reducing financial risks. (2) Gradual reform may still work better than the “big bang” approach, and sequencing is very important for avoiding the painful financial volatilities that many other middle-income countries have seen. (3) The government should also focus more on improving the quality of other institutions, especially market discipline, to contain financial risks. (4) It is better for the central bank to participate in financial regulation. The new regulatory system should focus exclusively on financial stability and shift from regulating institutions toward regulating functions. It should also become relatively independent to increase accountability.

________________________________________________________________

About the Author 

This submitted article was written by  and  of Asia Pathways, the blog of The Asian Development Bank Institute was established in 1997 in Tokyo, Japan, to help build capacity, skills, and knowledge related to poverty reduction and other areas that support long-term growth and competitiveness in developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region.

Continue Reading

Entrepreneurship

Why Angel Investors are Shaking Up the Global Startup Scene

Published

on

Candace Johnson is someone who has made a global impact on our modern international telecom and broadcast business. She co-initiated the foundation of SES-Astra and SES Global, which today owns a fleet of 54 satellites and broadcasts 6500 TV channels. And she founded the world’s first Internet-based online service, Europe Online, making it into one of the first broadband Internet services.

But it was in her role as president of EBAN, the European trade association of several hundred business angels, which brought her to Eindhoven’s High Tech Campus recently. She explains why angel investors are making a difference to the global start-up scene and explodes several myths that surrounds the way they do business. She spoke with StartupDelta’s Jonathan Marks.

Building the match between angel investors and hardware startups

“People often think that angel investors are people who do investments around the corner, locally, or in services like e-commerce. To be frank, when the HTCE management told me that they were focussing on the hardware side of things, I was thrilled.”

“What I’m trying to do as President of EBAN, and having incubated MBAN (MENA Business Angels Network) and ABAN (African Business Angels Network) under my presidency, is to extend the scope of angel investments. The vast majority of angels are already tech savvy. But we need to educate our successful angel investors to invest more in hardware and infrastructure. We also need to help start-ups develop a pitch that speaks to the interests of angels, so they can get funding for their initiative.”

“We run the EBAN Training Institute with the goal of raising standards. We’re seeing more and more that the best angel investors are serial entrepreneurs. They bring their trusted network, expertise and experience to the table.”

“Money is important too, but it is not at the top of the list. Business angel investors are high net worth individuals who usually provide smaller amounts of finance (€25,000 to €500,000) at an earlier stage than many venture capital funds are able to invest. They are increasingly investing alongside seed venture capital funds.”

Angels are more important than most people know

“We follow the guidelines and standards developed by the European Venture Capital Association. For over seven years, during the depths of the financial crisis in 2008 until the recent recovery started, it was the angel investors who took over the role of early stage financing. More than €7.5 billion are being invested annually in Europe, with a sustained growth in recent years. Of that €5.5 billion comes from angels. In fact we have had to professionalize our profession to meet the demand of the growth in this early stage ecosystem.”

We always have an exit strategy

“Angel investors can only continue to invest if they have exits. I hear many people talk about investing. Only a few discuss exits. I want to change that. I also stress that proven entrepreneurial success is essential in order to become a member of our association. We need to ensure that useful “lessons learned” are shared with the start-ups. They are always based on hands-on real-world experience. We have no time for people who are using new blood to try and correct mistakes they made in their own failed companies.”

“EBAN was started in 1999 together with the European commission. For the first ten years, I think people were too focussed on the investing part. Now we need to focus on exits and returns on investment. Without returns, business angels are out of business. And remember there is only a short window of opportunity during which start-ups can scale-up to becoming global success stories”.

“Our feeling is that you should not make an investment in a company unless you can see the path for the exit. The exit may be a trade sale, an IPO, etc. The exit also does not have to be 100 %. It does, however, have to bring you a return on your investment so that you can continue to invest. This approach helps you focus on building great companies. There’s always competition in healthy markets, so no-one can afford to waste time. We’re not a charity; we’re doing this because we love building and financing global success stories. We’re therefore looking for companies with a real marketable product, not a prototype or a collection of well-presented ideas.”

Is there specific advice you can share with high-tech startups?

“In the last few years we’ve seen the rise of the accelerators alongside incubators. They have helped raise standards because a good idea needs to be validated by the market before it is the basis for a high-growth company.”

“As investors, we always need to see a start-up demonstrate that they have first clients and initial revenues. We’re not saying that they have had to scale or show market traction. But if we are going to put in our personal money, then we expect the founder to be resourceful enough to work out the first product, to have found the first clients and show us evidence of the first revenues.”

“The incubators who help get an idea into reality and the accelerators have been good at making startups better prepared for angel investment, offering the right coaching to turn an idea into a validated business. That means angel investors are better able to select the growth companies and focus on making a good return on their investment.”

Hanneke Stegweg

“We recognise that young companies need to present their business proposition to the angels attending our annual conference. So we’ve created ways that teams get immediate, honest feedback on the quality of their business presentation. We have one full day of preparation and coaching followed by a Global Investment Forum. The best go on to pitch to the entire network. This year, the “company to watch” category was won by Hanneke Stegweg, who is the Dutch CEO of the iLost company. Together with Neelie Kroes, I am keen to see more women founders lead entrepreneurial teams.”

What needs to change for things to move faster?

“We held this year’s EBAN congress in Eindhoven at the recommendation of several members. They all work in the innovation and financing of innovation field. But this region also came up in our discussions with StartupDelta. We have worked closely with Neelie Kroes when she was with the European Commission.”

“We were tipped off to the High Tech Campus specifically by our Russian members: the Russian Business Angels and the Skolkovo Foundation who are building the Skolkovo science park just outside Moscow.”

“And last, but not least, I know Eindhoven from my work in telecommunications and broadcasting hardware field. We often came here to work with Philips on the establishment of the DVD and MPEG-4 standards.”

“During our visit to the Brainport area it was clear that there is more than enough money in the region and a healthy appetite to invest in innovation. But there are some caveats that we feel need to be addressed.”

“Frankly, I think we are rather tired of the “nice-to-have” e-commerce companies. We would prefer to reinvest in world-class companies who are building something tangible, solving a real-world challenge. They need to demonstrate they can scale and become global.”

“We can see that the efforts by many have helped to raise the bar in the Netherlands and that’s good news for everyone. But remember there is a difference between entrepreneurs and SME’s. Entrepreneurs are the only ones to change our world. They create large companies, worthwhile employment, and that grows into large revenues.”

Failure is not an option

“We should get rid of this talk of failure being an option. If you’re taking angel money, it is NOT OK to fail.”

“If you take third party money, you have a responsibility as an entrepreneur to do everything you can to make a return on the investment of your business angel. The media keeps talking about friends, family and fools. But that’s nonsense! Founders, families and friends build great companies!”

“I have always been a free marketer at heart. Europe and The Netherlands need to create nations of investors. I believe in the power of private sector-led investment. Government needs to follow the leads set by business angels, not the other way round. We are investing our own money and using our years of experience to scale up these companies. An entrepreneur who is not willing to work and dedicate her or his lives 24/7 to achieve the goal should look elsewhere for money!”

“We’re fortunate that the EBAN network acts as a magnet for excellence. We were honoured to have the President of the European Research Council and the Head of Technology Transfer of the European Space Agency address our Congress to show us where the technology trends are going and where we should invest.”

“From a venture and entrepreneurial financing perspective, we were most grateful to our colleagues from the United States who joined with our European, MENA, and African colleagues to set the bar high in creating, building and financing global success stories. Amongst those joining us in Eindhoven from the United States were the president of the Global Accelerator Network from the USA, the president emeritus of the Angel Capital Association of the USA, the President of Start-Up Angels and Board Member of Up Global from the USA. We also welcomed the President Emeritus of the Crowd funding association of the US as well as the chairman of New York Angels. And we were delighted with the presence of David S. Rose, the president of GUST.com. These are some of the world’s best experts in angel investing.”

“They all said they were pleasantly surprised by the high standard of the startups that came to Eindhoven from all over the world. It was well above what they had expected. Start-ups from Africa, Middle East and Europe traditionally explain what they do, rather than explaining to investors why their idea is important. But that’s changing rapidly for the better. Entrepreneurs are also getting better at defining what they need in order to scale-up.”

NEXT STEPS : It’s all about active networking

“I should explain that in expanding our reach in Europe, with have formed alliances with the European Space Agency and the European Research Council. They also have their own accelerators and incubators. I think the onus is on the angel investor community to help bring this scientific community to a higher level of entrepreneurship. They need to think about the market for their inventions from the beginning. I believe we can help these organisations filter out the very best ideas and give those the attention they need to scale ideas into real businesses. There needs to be a validated market need for the technology they are developing.”

“We have two main events. There is the annual EBAN congress, this year in Eindhoven and next year in Porto, Portugal. And we run the EBAN Winter University, this year running from November 17–19th in Copenhagen. We’re doing this with leading organisations active in Europe’s creative industries. And all this is in addition to individual events and competitions organised by EBAN members at a local, regional and national level.

Increasingly we’re assembling cross-border syndicates, both between European countries and increasingly inter-continental networks linking Europe with innovation hubs in Africa, Middle East and North America. As companies scale and go global, it is important they have access to an international shareholder network. It’s a softer landing when they cross continents.

We also believe there is a way in which we can build partnerships with techno-business parks around the globe, led by the flywheel initiatives shown by High Tech Campus Eindhoven over these very fruitful days in the Netherlands.

_________________________________________________________________

About the Author

This article was written by Jonathan Marks, Executive Director at Photon Delta. See more.

Continue Reading

Trending